General Comments:
The current falling trend in the commencement of new units is a bad thing for the economy and people looking to buy. But on the other hand it will be a good thing for capital growth and rental growth. The population is still growing faster then new properties can be built...simple supply and demand economics...when supply outstrips demand coupled with a reasonably strong employment market then you can expect market forces to maintain pressure on rent and property prices.
The main thing keeping a reign on property prices is the reserve bank and upward moving interest rates.
But a consequence of this policy is to stifle the property market is to reduce investor activity coupled with scarcity of development funding makes building new projects near impossible for a huge number of developers/builders.
SO even though things are not looking rosy for the new unit market, on the other side of the coin things are looking better for rent growth and property prices in the medium to long term.
SEPTEMBER KEY FIGURES
|
|
Sep qtr 10 |
Jun qtr 10 to Sep qtr 10 |
Sep qtr 09 to Sep qtr 10 |
|
|
no. |
% |
% |
|
Trend Estimates |
|||
|
|
|||
|
Total dwelling units commenced |
41 997 |
-3.8 |
18.1 |
|
New private sector houses |
25 949 |
-4.5 |
1.8 |
|
New private sector other residential building |
12 038 |
1.6 |
49.3 |
|
Seasonally Adjusted Estimates |
|||
|
|
|||
|
Total dwelling units commenced |
39 399 |
-13.2 |
12.4 |
|
New private sector houses |
25 771 |
-4.3 |
2.7 |
|
New private sector other residential building |
11 112 |
-13.5 |
39.3 |
|
|
|||
SEPTEMBER KEY POINTS
TOTAL DWELLING UNITS
- The trend estimate for the total number of dwelling units commenced fell 3.8% in the September quarter 2010 following a rise of 0.2% in the June quarter 2010.
- The seasonally adjusted estimate for the total number of dwelling units commenced fell 13.2% in the September quarter following a rise of 2.1% in the June quarter.
NEW HOUSES
- The trend estimate for new private sector house commencements fell 4.5% in the September quarter following a fall of 2.8% in the June quarter.
- The seasonally adjusted estimate for new private sector house commencements fell 4.3% in the September quarter following a fall of 4.5% in the June quarter.
OTHER RESIDENTIAL BUILDING
- The trend estimate for new private sector other residential building commencements rose 1.6% in the September quarter following a rise of 6.7% in the June quarter.
- The seasonally adjusted estimate for new private sector other residential building fell 13.5% in the September quarter following a rise of 16.8% in the June quarter.
SOURCE - ABR
