General Comments:
Wow, who can you believe when it comes to the state of the property market and what lies ahead..?
Since last year I was saying that as soon as the first home buyers grant expires, interest rates move up more than 1.5 basis points and the true underlying state of the economy becomes clear that the bull market conditions will turn into a bear market. The statistics show that this is what we have been experiencing for the past 2 quarters.
If the reserve bank introduces further interest rate increases in the next 6 months I feel the wind will be well and truly be knocked out of the sails and a more stabile growth will be fueled by the undersupply of new dwellings and the population growth demanding more dwellings. So I believe we are in for consistent growth in rents and property prices but at a more sustainable level.
OCTOBER KEY FIGURES
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Oct 10 |
Sep 10 to Oct 10 |
Oct 09 to Oct 10 |
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no. |
% change |
% change |
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TREND |
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Total dwelling units approved |
12 692 |
-0.9 |
-8.7 |
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|
Private sector houses |
8 196 |
-0.5 |
-14.2 |
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|
Private sector other dwellings |
3 991 |
-1.0 |
21.5 |
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SEASONALLY ADJUSTED |
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Total dwelling units approved |
13 541 |
9.3 |
1.2 |
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Private sector houses |
8 284 |
1.5 |
-15.7 |
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|
Private sector other dwellings |
4 576 |
23.6 |
67.3 |
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OCTOBER KEY POINTS
TOTAL DWELLING UNITS
- The trend estimate for total dwellings approved fell 0.9% in October 2010 and is showing falls for eight months.
- The seasonally adjusted estimate for total dwellings approved rose 9.3% following falls in the previous six months.
PRIVATE SECTOR HOUSES
- The trend estimate for private sector houses approved fell 0.5% in October and has fallen for ten months.
- The seasonally adjusted estimate for private sector houses approved rose 1.5% following falls in the previous four months.
PRIVATE SECTOR OTHER DWELLING UNITS
- The trend estimate for private sector other dwellings approved fell 1.0% in October and has fallen for five months.
- The seasonally adjusted estimate for private sector other dwellings approved rose 23.6% following a fall of 14.8% last month.
VALUE OF BUILDING APPROVED
- The trend estimate for the value of total building approved fell 0.9% in October and has fallen for seven months.
- The trend estimates for the value of building approved should be interpreted with caution. See the data notes on page 2 of this publication.
- The seasonally adjusted estimate for the value of total building approved rose 4.1% in October. The seasonally adjusted estimate for the value of new residential building rose 8.2% and the value of residential alterations and additions rose 7.9%. The seasonally adjusted estimate for the value of non-residential building fell 3.8%.
Source: ABR
